Rheinmetall has been one of Europe's best-performing stocks since Russia invaded Ukraine. On Thursday it reminded investors that a full order book and a full delivery schedule are not the same thing.
What happened
The Düsseldorf defence group cut its 2026 sales forecast to around €13.2 billion, from a range of €13.7 to 14.2 billion, and trimmed its expected operating margin to about 18.5% from 19%. It blamed delays to Germany's Boxer armoured vehicle programme, now expected next year, and setbacks in acceptance testing for artillery ammunition. It was the second cut this year. The first, in August, followed Berlin's decision to drop a warship order that would have been Rheinmetall's largest since the Second World War.
The shares fell about 17%, according to Forbes Italia, and dragged the DAX down 0.4% on the day.
Why it's not as bad as it sounds
The quarter itself was strong. Sales rose 32% to €3.15 billion and operating profit jumped 62% to €553 million. The order backlog reached €78 billion at the end of September. Demand isn't the problem. The problem is that governments buy slowly, test thoroughly, and pay on delivery.
Why it matters
European defence has been a crowded trade. When a stock is priced for everything to go right, a delay is enough to knock a sixth off its value in a day. The same risk applies to suppliers across the sector, including smaller German and European names that depend on the same government programmes.
What we're watching
Whether the Boxer programme gets signed off early next year, ammunition acceptance results, and whether other European defence companies start warning about the same procurement bottlenecks.
Sources
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